Jeff Risdon, DLD Editor
The calendar has turned from summer to fall, so it’s probably time to put out the initial 2015 mock draft.
I’ve included many underclassmen but in the majority of the cases it’s simply speculation that these players will declare. At this point in the process there is still way too much to learn about the prospects to offer much more than guesswork. Consider this more for entertainment purposes than any real substantive prediction of what’s going to happen next May.
The draft order is based on my personal projection of how the NFL season will play out after watching three weeks of action. It will change, probably in dramatic fashion, before the next version comes out in another month or so.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Williams, DE, USC. With comparisons to both J.J. Watt and Bruce Smith tossed about, Williams is indeed a candidate for #1 overall. He’s an impact talent with positional versatility and great flair for finishing plays in the backfield. The Jaguars landed their QB in the last draft, now it’s time to build the other side of the ball. Their defense is the reason they’re picking in this spot.
2.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon. Mariota has the “it” factor, the intangible but very real quality to elevate those around him with his presence and quiet assertiveness. He’s a great quarterback who happens to be a great athlete, though he still needs some polish. Easy choice for the team which rolled the dice on Josh McCown in his mid-30s as the answer at QB.
3. Oakland Raiders: Andrus Peat, T, Stanford. The third underclassmen in as many pick, Peat calls to mind a healthy Jake Long or Michael Roos. Like those guys, he’s a very long left tackle who brings the nastiness and power aspect to the position. The Raiders must add talent around Derek Carr, and giving him a blindside guardian is a good start.
4. St. Louis Rams: Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA. I really like Hundley’s progress in 2014. He’s still not an immediate NFL starter, but he’s showing growth towards his very high potential. After years of waiting for Sam Bradford to simultaneously stay healthy and be better than an average QB, the Rams can wait no longer. At least they have what looks to be a capable backup/bridge in Austin Davis.
5. Miami Dolphins: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama. The talented wideout has improved his game from being an all-around Mr. Reliable to a more dynamic force. His body control and strong hands are exceptional, and he plays faster than he’ll time because of his economy of movement. Ryan Tannehill gets one more year to prove he’s the man, and Cooper can only help.
6. Minnesota Vikings: Landon Collins, S, Alabama. Collins is a very talented, playmaking safety. He’s going to wind up with a higher grade than any safety in the past couple of drafts, and that will be awfully tempting for a Minnesota team in the pass-happy NFC North.
7. Kansas City Chiefs: Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn. I toyed with adding yet another pass rusher here, but the obvious need is getting better at wide receiver. Coates gets from 10-30 yards down the field as well as any receiver in the country and does a great job quickly securing the ball and taking a hit.
8. Washington: Shawn Oakman, DE, Baylor. The massive end is quite an intimidating presence setting the edge. He’ll get many Calais Campbell comparisons, and that’s the best-case outcome the Skins will hope for here. He reminds me much more of Quentin Coples, a long/strong guy without a lot of twitch.
9. Houston Texans: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State. I sincerely hope he stays in school, but that’s not going to happen. Extreme boom/bust talent who can do rare things but often acts entitled and childish. Too much potential for a team like the Texans, who normally shy away from knuckleheads, to bypass here.
10. Tennessee Titans: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon. In a league that wants length at cornerback, IEO stands just 5’9”. That tells you how incredible his coverage and tackling skills are that he can be so small and still command top-10 consideration. He will likely be my highest-graded player in the draft, and getting him in this range would be a real coup for the Titans.
11. Cleveland Browns: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia. Put away your Trent Richardson sneers. Gurley has far more bounce and vision than the last Browns 1st round RB. He’s a very safe bet to break the two-year drought of running backs in the first round. He could even go higher than this if he can get through the year with no lasting injuries.
12. New York Giants: Vic Beasley, Edge, Clemson. Beasley adds speed and big-play ability to a Giants line that needs some reinforcements. He’s got the potential to line up as a 4-3 SLB and nickel rusher right away, adding a dimension to the defense. His closing burst is awesome.
13. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo): Randy Gregory, Edge, Nebraska. Wide receiver seems logical here, but I just don’t see another wideout coming close to the overall rating that some teams will give the athletic Gregory. I’m not a fan of his inconsistent and underdeveloped overall game, but he’ll intrigue teams. The Browns like stockpiling defensive talent.
14. Green Bay Packers: Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State. At some point the law of averages dictates the Packers will finally draft a legitimate NFL player along the defensive front with one of their high picks. Ted Thompson has missed on every single one other than Clay Matthews, a pick many Packers fans hated at the time. Bennett could be that guy, and he’s a natural 5-technique with gap-shooting ability–exactly what they need.
15. New York Jets: P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State. Because Antonio Allen cannot be the #1 cornerback even when Dee Milliner is healthy. Because Rex Ryan will love his length and how he likes to hit people. Because this is probably his draft floor if he tests the way many expect and keeps standing out in a talent-laden Seminoles secondary.
16. Dallas Cowboys: Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State. Calhoun is a rangy edge presence who can both hold the line against the run and turn the corner against the passer. He’s a smart player with quick reactions and already has a variety of moves. The Cowboys need him. He and a healthy Demarcus Lawrence would give them a nice young DE tandem.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cedric Ogbuehi, T, Texas A&M. This is probably lower than you’ll see the highly-skilled Aggie in any mock draft. He could easily go in the top 5. I’m working this mock on a theory that all the recent duds (Fisher, Joeckel, Robinson, Johnson) in the top 5 will make teams a little gunshy on taking tackles. The Steelers would happily lap him up here.
18. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Scherff, T, Iowa. As with Ogbuehi, Scherff could very well go 15 spots higher than this. He’s a much better prospect than 2014 #11 overall pick Taylor Lewan, who played with a similar powerful style and to-the-whistle mentality. Put Scherff on the right side with Jake Matthews on the left and the Falcons are set for years at what has been a position of dire need.
19. San Francisco 49ers: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, ex-Missouri. This pick is predicated upon Jim Harbaugh and Trent Baalke returning, though if they’re picking here it’s because the Niners missed the playoffs and that makes their fates cloudy. DGB is a difference-making wideout in the Julio Jones mold, but he’s got significant off-field issues.
20. Chicago Bears: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington. Shelton is a massive 0- or 1-technique immovable object with the ability to push into the backfield and disrupt offenses. He’s got surprising quickness for a man of his 340ish pound girth. Inconsistency dogs him, but he could make a real big splash in the middle of Chicago’s rebuilding defense.
21. Baltimore Ravens: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin. What’s this?!? Two first-round RBs? The Ravens’ desperation to climb out of the yards-per-carry cellar leads them to Gordon, a home-run threat who reminds me a great deal of Robert Smith in his prime.
22. Detroit Lions: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State. Waynes is long, speedy and shows a great nose for the ball. He’s got the swagger of a #1 corner to go with the physical traits. His biggest issue is staying within the framework of the defense and consistently playing to his skills. Detroit desperately needs more young talent at corner.
23. Indianapolis Colts: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State. He’s the big, physical outside-the-tackles receiver that Andrew Luck sorely needs. He needs some work on his technique but offers strong (no pun intended) potential in the mold of an Alshon Jeffery.
24. Carolina Panthers: La’El Collins, T, LSU. The Panthers have to replace Jordan Gross, and even though Byron Bell has not been bad he’s a limited commodity at LT. Collins has a higher ceiling and the same sort of power setting the edge. He’s a divisive prospect based on an up-and-down career.
25. New Orleans Saints: Dante Fowler, Edge, Florida. Fowler brings great closing burst and chase-down ability, and he’s done a better job keeping his feet clean this season. Rob Ryan–if he keeps his job, and if New Orleans is drafting here he will–is going to break tables pounding on them so hard for a guy like Fowler.
26. San Diego Chargers: Jalen Collins, CB, LSU. Collins is a long, lanky, speedy corner who is a better athlete than football player at this point, but he’s not that far away. The Chargers took a corner in the first a year ago, but you can never have too many DBs in a division with Peyton Manning.
27. New England Patriots: Ty Montgomery, WR/RS, Stanford. I forget who said it on Sirius NFL Radio this week, but I completely concur that the Patriots have a glaring lack of speed on offense. There might not be a faster football player in the country than Montgomery, and he’s got solid receiving skills too.
28. Arizona Cardinals: Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA. Kendricks is a very impressive all-around linebacker, capable of stuffing the run between the tackles but also running with a tight end on an outside wheel route. With all the questions Arizona has at inside backer, this seems like a no-brainer pick at this early juncture.
29. Denver Broncos: Marcus Golden, DE, Missouri. Golden has taken over the Kony Ealy role of defensive wild card, lining up at outside backer, end and even tackle in Missouri’s attack-style defense. He’s a more naturally strong guy than Ealy. Denver has few needs but takes versatile talent that can fill several potential roles here.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Mills, DB, LSU. Mills has impressed as both a corner and a safety, an instinctive football player with a good nose for the ball. That’s a great fit for a defense that tends to wind up in lots of shootouts and often plays a lot of snaps when Philly’s go-go offense doesn’t go.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Spencer Drango, T, Baylor. The light-footed behemoth appears fully recovered from 2013 back surgery, and he’s a great value here if he can continue to dominate the edge like he’s doing for the Bears so far. He’d make a nice apprentice behind Andrew Whitworth and provide depth at Cincy’s thinnest position.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Devin Funchess, TE, Michigan. Funchess is in the mold of the hybrid TE/WR that is becoming a big trend. He’s straight-line fast but runs routes more like a tight end at this point. In his favor: he makes great catches on poor throws consistently, and he can break tackles. Seattle keeps reloading with talent that fills useful roles.
